Meteorological Analysis of Extreme Fires in Albania during the Period 2019–2025

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between weather conditions and extreme fires in Albania during 2019–2025, aiming to assess the impact of atmospheric conditions on the occurrence, intensity, and spatial distribution of forest fires. The period was selected due to the increased occurrence of fire events and the availability of consistent meteorological and satellite datasets. The analysis was carried out by integrating satellite data from Copernicus (Sentinel-2B), the EFFIS (European Forest Fire Information System) burned-area database, and meteorological observations from the National Meteorological Monitoring System of Albania. The methodology includes the processing of satellite images to identify burned areas, the statistical analysis of key meteorological indicators, and the application of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) to assess national-scale fire risk. For each of the six years, only the warm season (April–September) was analyzed, as this period favors the spread of fires. Spatial and temporal analysis identified the most affected areas, the peak fire periods, and the relationships between meteorological parameters and fire outbreaks. The results are based on burned-area data obtained from EFFIS. The official shapefiles were processed and aggregated in Excel to calculate annual, monthly, and regional fire statistics. The highest values were recorded during 2024–2025, when burned areas exceeded 47,000–59,000 ha, while the Vlora region accounted for more than 40–47% of the national total. Fire activity consistently peaks in August (52%) and July (35%), coinciding with climatic drought, heat waves, and extreme temperatures. During these months, daily mean temperatures often exceed 35–38 °C, heatwaves last 5–10 days, and rainfall is minimal, creating highly favorable conditions for fire ignition. The interannual comparison confirms that fire dynamics are strongly influenced by thermal anomalies, lack of summer rainfall, and prolonged drought. The study highlights the essential role of meteorological conditions and climate trends in the development and expansion of forest fires in Albania, along with the importance of early warning systems such as the EFFIS Fire Danger Forecast and national meteorological alerts. The findings support national strategies for fire risk management, territorial planning, and the protection of ecosystems and local communities under ongoing climate change impacts.