Comparative Analysis for Prediction of Electrical Power Demand of Bayelsa State (Nigeria) by Year 2025

Abstract

This work predicts the peak electrical load demand consumption of Bayelsa State by the year 2025. The data of electrical load allocation and utilization of power consumption of the State in the past five (5) years (2006-2010) were extracted from control room log sheets of Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) and Kolo Creek Gas Turbine Power Station (Glory Power Company Ltd) for the comparative analysis. Population growth rate for the state as well as Master plan by the Capital City Development Authority were also used. The loads for the analysis were divided into the following categories: domestic, commercial, industrial and electrical load consumed by government agencies. Various improved engineering analysis models and applications including calculations, diagrams and graphs were reviewed and applied to justify the study; the Study revealed that Second-Order Polynomial Model gives the best fit because it gives the least error of 0.66 and provides a good approximation to the shape of f(x) function which describes the trend of the electrical power demand distribution in Bayelsa State.