Recent Rainfall Trend and Abrupt Changes Over Cavally Basin (West Africa)

Abstract

Aims: Analyze the recent variations in annual and monthly precipitation at 18 pluviometry stations in the Cavally river basin. Place and Duration of Study: Data of month and annual rainfall data of 37 years (1980-2016) collected from the National direction of Meteorology for Ivory Coast and Guinea and from https://app.climateengine.org/climateEngine for Liberia. Methodology: Statistical methods are used to highlight the evolution of cumulative annual rainfall and the distribution of the different seasons over the period 1980-2016. Hanning’s low pass, Mann-Kendall classic test, modified Mann-Kendall test, Mann-Kendall seasonal test and Standard Normal Homogeneity Test were applied to identify the existing trend direction and significance of change over time. Results: The periods 1980-1996 and 1997-2016 could be considered as wet and dry periods respectively (with a rainfall deficit of 18% after the break in 1996). In addition, we observe a decrease in rainy days of strong accumulation that lead to a significant drop in total annual rainfall. Finally, an abnormal increase in rainfall during the dry season months and a decrease in rainfall during the rainy season months. This indicates an intra-seasonal irregularity (shortening of the rainy season and prolongation of the dry season) of precipitation. Conclusion: The Hanning filter, M-K test and SNHT are non-parametric tests widely used in the study of climate trends. However, the additional consideration of serial autocorrelation (MM-K test) and seasonal trends (M-K-S test) allows to extend and refine the information on climate variability.