Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Western Nepal (1994 and 2025)

Abstract

Understanding Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) change is essential for interpreting environmental transformation and supporting sustainable land management. This study assessed spatial and temporal changes in LULC across eight districts of western Nepal between 1994 and 2025 using Landsat imagery and GIS-based classification. Five major land-cover classes were examined: forest, agricultural land, developed area, water bodies and barren land. The findings show marked differences between hill and Terai districts. Forest cover increased in most hill districts, particularly in Baitadi, Achham and Dailekh, where agricultural land abandonment and community forestry initiatives appear to have contributed to vegetation recovery. In contrast, Kailali and Kanchanpur showed pressure from urban expansion and infrastructure development, reflected in changes in developed areas and forest extent. Agricultural land declined across all districts, indicating a regional shift away from cultivation. Developed areas increased in every district, suggesting continued settlement growth and land conversion. Water bodies decreased across the study area, indicating potential ecological stress and increasing pressure on surface-water resources. Barren land showed comparatively minor fluctuations. Overall, the study demonstrates that western Nepal is undergoing complex LULC transitions shaped by migration, land abandonment, urbanisation and forest management. The findings provide useful evidence for district-level land-use planning, environmental monitoring and conservation-oriented policy decisions.