Identification of Potential Future Areas for Sustainable Cashew (Anacardium occidentale L.) Nut Production in Togo Using the Maxent Model

Abstract

Understanding present and potential habitats is critical for developing climate-resilient cashew-growing techniques and sustainable management strategies. This study aims to identify the existing distribution of Anacardium occidentale L. in Togo and anticipates the possible impact of climate change on its habitat distribution by 2050 using two global circulation models (HadGEM3-GC3.1-L and MIROC6) and two shared socioeconomic paths (SSP245 and SSP585). The maximum entropy algorithm, 2538 species occurrence records, and a set of seventeen (17) climatic and soil variables were used. The findings revealed that soil, followed by annual precipitation (bio12) and temperature seasonality (bio4), are the most important environmental variables influencing cashew distribution in Togo. According to the present model, 78.92% of Togo's topography is very favourable to sustainable cashew-growing practices. According to the MOROC6 Model, very favourable cashew nut production areas will be decreased to 5.24% in the SSP 245 scenario and altogether disappear with the SSP585 scenario by 2050. However, for the HadGEM3-GC3.1-L model by 2050, the areas of sustainable cashew nut production in Togo will be reduced to 3.71% and 0.26% respectively for the SSP245 and 585 scenarios. In short, the results of this study, which was carried out for the first time in Togo, point out the need to put in place a strategy for the conservation and sustainable cultivation of cashew trees in Togo.