HIV Model Enhancing UNAIDS Goal to End AIDS: Simulations in Botswana

Abstract

In this paper we have modelled the spread of HIV infections enhancing UNAIDS goal to end AIDS. The goal has two dependent missions.One side of the goal is a 90-90-90 target, that by 2020, (90% of all people living with HIV (PLHIV) should know their status, 90% of whose status is known should be under ART, and 90% of patients under ART should have their viral load suppressed.  On the other side, by 2030; UNAIDS requires to minimize up to at least 90% of both new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths. According to the model, the goal is linked to the basic reproduction number (R0). When R0 < 1 the number of new HIV infections decreases. Methodology: According to the model, we have demonstrated that HIV spread is controllable under some conditions in Botswana. For this country, R0 ≈ 0:5051 which is below the threshold value R0 = 0:6000. Thus, suggesting her potential to achieve UNAIDS goal. According to our evaluation from the model, by 2020, 92% of PLHIV are expected to be under ART. Interestingly, in Botswana new HIV infections are mostly due to people who are not under ART. By 2030 not only that 96% of PLHIV are expected to be under ART but also both new HIV infections and AIDS related deaths are expected to decrease above 90% since their highest in 2010. Our main concern is to provide more mathematical insights for UNAIDS to keep up with progress of the goal to end AIDS by 2030.