Solar Radiation Forecasting Models and their Thermodynamic Analysis in Asaba: Least Square Regression and Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

Least square regression and machine learning tools were used for the development of global solar radiation forecasting models for Asaba region. Data from the year 2013-2022 from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Asaba was used for this study. The least square regression method was used to develop four global solar radiation -based models, tagged H1, H2, H3 and H4 with characteristic day length, solar declination angle, rainfall amount, etc. as its model terms while the machine learning models produced multilayer perceptron, coarse Gaussian model (SVM-based model) and XGBoost model. The prediction factors like mean bias error, mean percentage error, root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe equation, coefficient of correlation (R), t-test, and coefficient of determination (R2) were considered using the model terms. The results indicates that H4 model outperformed H1, H2, H3, machine learning models (SVM-based model, multilayer perceptron and XGBoost) and other existing models (MA-MME and MLR) with a mean percentage error value of 0.740, RMSE value of 46.588, Nash-Sutcliffe equation value of 0.739, higher R2 value of 0.7391, t-test value of 2.595E-24 and mean bias error value of -6.88E-12. Thus, H4 model results fell within accepted range. Additionally, the exergy of the global solar radiation of Asaba varied from 20-185 W/m2 which are good. This shows that a more efficient and ideal global solar radiation prediction model (H4) has been developed for Asaba and other regions that share similar climatic conditions.