Analysis of a Multiscale Model of Ebola Virus Disease

Abstract

Multiscale models are ones that link the epidemiological processes dealing with the transmission between hosts and the immunological processes dealing with the dynamics within one host. In this study, a multiscale model of Ebola Virus Disease linking epidemiological and immunological processes has been developed and analysed. The model has considered two infectious classes ; the exposed and the infected individuals. Local and global stability analyses of the Disease Free Equilibrium and the Endemic Equilibrium points of the model show that the disease dies out if the basic reproduction number Rc0 < 1 and persists in the population when Rc0 > 1 respectively. Sensitivity analysis shows that the rate of vaccination, v , is the most sensitive parameter. This indicates that effort should be directed towards implementing an effective vaccination strategy to control the spread of the disease. It has also been established that when treatment efficacy is scaled up, the viral load goes down and consequently, the transmission between hosts is also reduced. The impact of treatment on the disease spread has also been established through the coupling function (L∗) . The study indicates that a higher percentage of the exposed and the infected individuals should be treated to control the spread of the disease within the population.