A VECM Analysis of the Relations the CPI, PPI, GDP Per Capita, Exchange Rate in the Republic of Azerbaijan

Abstract

Aims:  The study focuses on an empirical analysis of a macroeconomic indicators system,  that reflect the level and pace of a country's socio-economic development, such as CPI, PPI, GDP per capita, exchange rate, taking into account the consequences of the COVID19 pandemic and oil prices  on the example Republic of Azerbaijan. Study Design:  The study consists of four sections. It includes Introduction, Literature Review, Methodology, Results and Discussion and Conclusion. Place and Duration of Study: The study was conducted for 4 months of 2020 in the department of "Mathematical support of economic research" of the Institute of Economics of Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences. Methodology: Within the dynamic VEC model, taking into account the COVID19 pandemic and oil prices, the long-run and short-run effects of macro indicators system on each other were studied by means of causality, impulse responses and variance decomposition on the monthly statistics covering the period 2015M01-2020M07 for the Republic of Azerbaijan. Results: Calculations based on the established stable VEC (5) model revealed that there is a long-term causal relationship from the triad (CPI, PPI, Ex_Rate) to all endogenous variables. There are a short-term bi-directional causal relationship between CPI and GDP_Per_Capita and between PPI and Ex_Rate. From PPI and Ex_Rate to GDP_Per_Capita; from Ex_Rate to CPI, there are a unidirectional short-term causal relationship. Conclusion: Summarizing the results, we can write the following long-term expressions: the change   a) in the GDP_per_Cap is influenced by the PPI and CPI variables negatively, and Ex_Rate – positively; b) in the CPI is influenced by the GDP_per_Cap and PPI variables negatively, and Ex_Rate – positively; c) in the PPI is influenced by the Ex_Rate and CPI variables negatively, and GDP_per_Cap – positively, so that the negative influence of the CPI is greater; d) in the Ex_Rate is influenced by the PPI and CPI variables negatively, and GDP_per_Cap – positively. Has been also identified that the indicator PPI has a more negative effect on changes in GDP_per_Cap, CPI and Ex_Rate.