Behaviour of Market Arrivals and Prices of Garlic in Gujarat, India

Abstract

Garlic (Allium sativum L.) is an important commercial spice-cum-bulb crop in Gujarat, where price instability can affect farmers and market participants because production and market supply are seasonal. This study examined the seasonal, cyclical, and irregular behaviour of garlic market arrivals and wholesale prices in Rajkot, Jamnagar, and Gondal APMC markets using monthly secondary data for 2011–2025. A multiplicative time-series decomposition model was applied, and seasonal indices were estimated using the ratio-to-moving-average method. Garlic prices were below the annual average from February to April in all three markets, with the lowest seasonal price index in March and the highest in November. Arrival indices were generally elevated during parts of January–April and October–December and were lowest during July–August. Intra-year price variation was greatest in Gondal, where the intra-year price rise reached 99.83%, compared with 62.72% in Rajkot and 54.91% in Jamnagar. Annual price indices showed marked inter-annual variation, with the highest values in 2024: 3.56 in Rajkot, 2.77 in Jamnagar, and 3.53 in Gondal relative to the respective study-period means. Irregular components also varied across years and markets. Overall, the results demonstrate pronounced seasonal and inter-annual variation in garlic marketing conditions and support the importance of storage, market information, and timely marketing decisions.