Trend, Growth and Instability Analysis of Wheat Crop in Central India

Abstract

Information about agricultural trends can help policymakers identify strategies that will result in a sustained rise in food output. The present investigation has been undertaken to study the Growth, Trend and Instability in Area, Production and Productivity of Wheat Crop in Chhattisgarh Plains. Time series data for wheat were collected for the period (1990-91 to 2014-15). The linear, quadratic and exponential functions are fitted in order to analyse the trend in area, production and productivity of wheat crop. Besides these compound growth rate, coefficient of variation, instability index of area, production and productivity of this crop have also been recorded. In the entire Chhattisgarh Plains, the average compound growth rate for wheat area is (0.41%). Dhamtari District has the lowest compound growth rate (-8.22%) while Raigarh District has the highest (3.4%) under wheat-growing areas. The negative growth rate under area of wheat in Dhamtari district is causing a switch from winter wheat to summer rice. The average compound growth rate of wheat production across the entire Chhattisgarh Plains is positive (2.42%), which is a good indicator of the rising trend in wheat production in the Chhattisgarh Plains. The highest compound growth rate of wheat production is found in Kawardha District (7.62%), while the lowest is in Dhamtari District (-4.33%).The average compound growth rate for wheat productivity across the entire Chhattisgarh Plains is (1.51%), with Kawardha District having the highest rate (5.00%) and Raigarh District having the lowest (0.60%).