Evaluating the Impact of Intra-Urban Logistics Constraints on Delivery Timeliness: Evidence of Market-Based Suppliers in Lagos, Nigeria

Abstract

Background and Aims: High freight demand, congestion, and poor delivery infrastructure have continued to strain intra-urban logistics operations in Lagos, but market-based suppliers continue to experience chronic delays and unreliable delivery performance in key distribution centers. Therefore, this research bridged the literature gap by offering empirical data on the joint effect of traffic congestion, loading and curbside infrastructure, regulatory constraints, and network fragmentation with weak ICT on the timeliness of deliveries among market-based suppliers in on Mile 12, Lagos, which previous research had not adequately addressed. Study design: Quantitative survey design. Place and Duration of Study: Mile 12 Community, Kosofe LGA, Lagos State, Nigeria April 2025 and November 2025. Methodology: Data was sourced from primary source using structured questionnaires, distributed to 377 respondents who are wholesalers and retailers working in the Mile 12 market. Traffic Congestion Constraint (TCC), Loading and Curbside Infrastructure Constraint (LCIC), Regulatory and Access Restriction Constraint (RARC), and Network Fragmentation and ICT Constraint (NFIC) were measured as predictors, and Delivery Timeliness (DT) was the dependent variable. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) were used to analyse data. Results: Results show that all constraints have a significant impact on timeliness of delivery: LCIC (beta = 0.307, p < 0.001) was the most significant predictor, then NFIC (beta = 0.285, p < 0.001), TCC (beta = 0.243, p < 0.001), and RARC (beta = 0.186, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The research finds that infrastructural bottlenecks, coordination and ICT constraints, exposure to congestion, and regulatory constraints are joint determinants of delivery timeliness in Mile 12. It is recommended that loading and offloading zones should be established and applied around Mile 12 market to minimize loading delays and enhance delivery timeliness.