Export Performance of Sugar from India: Growth, Instability, and Market Diversification Using Markov Chain Analysis

Abstract

India is a major producer of sugar, and the stability and destination structure of its exports are important for understanding trade performance. This study evaluates India’s sugar export performance using growth and instability measures together with Markov chain analysis. Export-destination data for the top ten importing countries cover 2014–15 to 2023–24, while the manuscript reports export and import instability estimates for 1995–96 to 2023–24. The export instability index was 68.347, whereas the import instability index was substantially higher at 483.161, indicating greater variability in inward trade flows. Export volumes to the reported destinations expanded over the study decade, although the annual pattern was uneven. Transition probability analysis was used to assess market retention, redistribution among destinations, and long-run market shares. The reported steady-state probabilities were highest for Malaysia (0.166), Vietnam (0.156), the USA (0.130), and Ghana (0.128), identifying these markets as important long-run destinations within the estimated transition structure. The analysis therefore highlights the relevance of destination stability and market diversification in assessing India’s sugar export performance. The findings support a policy emphasis on maintaining access to established markets, strengthening export competitiveness, improving production stability, and reducing exposure to trade instability through a more diversified export structure during the period examined.