Forecasting the Future of Food: An Integrated Review of Crop and Climate Simulation Models

Abstract

Global agriculture is facing a powerful challenge from climate change, with its potential to destabilize food systems through increased temperatures, unpredictable rainfall, extended droughts, and more frequent extreme weather events. These climatic shocks are projected to impact significantly on crop yields, shift planting seasons, and amplify the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, especially in the developing world. Here, crop and climate simulation models have become vital tools for projecting agricultural performance, assessing adaptation options, and guiding policy choices to promote long-term food security. By incorporating biological, environmental, and climatic factors, the models allow researchers and other stakeholders to estimate the projected effects of climate futures on crop productivity. This review integrates the structure, applications, and limitations of prominent crop and climate simulation models i.e., DSSAT, APSIM, Aqua Crop, WOFOST, and InfoCrop and emphasizes their application in informing climate-resilient agricultural planning. It also examines coupling these models with climate projection tools and discusses progress in model integration, handling uncertainty, and regional adaptation.