From Energy Access to Agricultural Resilience: Determinants, Adoption, and Economic Impacts of Solar-Powered Irrigation among Smallholder Farmers in Southwestern Nigeria

Abstract

Aims: This study examined the determinants and economic outcomes associated with the adoption of solar-powered irrigation systems (SPIS) among smallholder farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria. Study Design: A cross-sectional survey with an observational impact evaluation was employed. Place and Duration of Study: The study was conducted in Ibarapa East, Akinyele, and Ogbomosho North Local Government Areas of Oyo State, Nigeria, from 4 October to 7 November 2025. Methodology: Data were collected from 320 farmers, comprising 153 SPIS adopters and 167 non-adopters. Descriptive statistics summarised respondents’ characteristics. Binary logistic regression identified factors associated with adoption, while propensity-score matching estimated the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated for annual farm income, production costs, and land-based economic productivity. Nearest-neighbour, radius, and kernel matching assessed robustness. Results: Cultivated farm size was significantly associated with a greater likelihood of adoption (odds ratio [OR] = 1.342, p = .001), while access to credit (OR = 1.588, p = .020) and extension services (OR = 1.709, p = .011) were also positively associated with adoption. Age, household size, and farming experience were not statistically significant. After matching, SPIS adoption was associated with an increase of ₦34,394 in annual farm income and ₦39,029 ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in land-based economic productivity and a reduction of ₦121,703 in annual production costs. Effect directions and magnitudes remained stable across matching algorithms. Conclusion: SPIS adoption was associated with improved farm performance, primarily through cost savings, with additional gains in income and land-based economic productivity. Scaling adoption requires affordable finance, specialised extension support, inclusive ownership models, reliable maintenance services, and sustainable water-use safeguards.