Unravelling the Past, Understanding the Present: A Deep Dive into India's Infectious Disease Trends

Abstract

India is undergoing a complex triple transition—economic, demographic, and epidemiological—that is reshaping its public health priorities. Economic development and urbanization have improved infrastructure and access but have also contributed to lifestyle-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Simultaneously, demographic changes such as population aging have increased the vulnerability to chronic conditions. Despite this shift, communicable diseases (CDs) remain a major concern, especially in low Epidemiological Transition Level (ETL) states like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh. While the share of CDs in the total disease burden declined from 53.6% in 1990 to 27.5% in 2016, India still contributes 26% of global tuberculosis cases and over 65% of malaria cases in the WHO South-East Asia Region. The dual burden of CDs and NCDs imposes a significant economic burden, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations due to persistent health inequities and poor access to care. This challenge is compounded by low public health expenditure, which stood at only 1.84% of GDP in 2019–20, and high out-of-pocket expenses (39.4%), increasing household financial strain. Addressing this requires a strengthened public health system—equitable, integrated, and adequately funded—to effectively manage the coexisting burdens of infectious and chronic diseases, and respond to the evolving needs of India’s transitioning population.