Forecasting the Economic Value of Ecosystem Services in Coastal Areas of the Indian Ocean: A Case Study of the Kinondoni District, Tanzania

Abstract

This study forecasts changes in the economic value of ecosystem services (ESVs) in Kinondoni District, Tanzania, between 2023 and 2033, with a focus on the impacts of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on natural capital. Using a combination of remote sensing, GIS, and ESV estimation methods, the study reveals significant shifts in ecosystem services. Water bodies are expected to dominate the landscape, contributing over 90% of the total ESV, followed by mangrove forests. However, the total ESV is projected to decrease by 5.4% to 6.2%, amounting to a loss of between US$ 1.04 million and US$ 1.31 million, mainly due to declines in water and mangroves. The study also anticipates losses in ecosystem functions, particularly in regulating and provisioning services. These losses are primarily attributed to the degradation of water bodies and mangrove forests, which play key roles in maintaining ecosystem balance. The decline in ESVs underscores the risk of deforestation and the challenges of managing public natural resources. The study emphasizes the urgent need to revise and enhance conservation strategies to safeguard the sustainability of coastal ecosystems in Tanzania, ensuring their long-term benefits for both the environment and human populations.