Rainfall Trend Analysis and Adaptation Strategies to Manage Climate-Induced Crisis in Coastal Zone of Karnataka, India

Abstract

Analysis of deviation of precipitation in space, time and quantities, and its associated effect on the ecology is vital in coastal environments where the resource is highly variable and unpredictable. The present study is mainly concerned with the changing trend of rainfall and adaptation in a coastal region of Karnataka. This study is an effort to analyse one of the most important climatic factors i.e. rainfall, for analysing the trend for the area. Weekly rainfall data of 34 years from 1980 to 2013 has been processed in the study to find the seasonal and annual rainfall pattern using Mann-Kendall (MK) Test and Sen’s Slope estimation. Decreasing trend in annual rainfall was observed in Dakshina Kannada (-3.2 mm/yr.), whereas increasing trend was found in Udupi (4.9 mm/yr.) and Uttara Kannada (13.0 mm/yr.). In seasonal trend analysis of rainfall, a non-significant increasing trend is observed for winter, summer, and post-monsoon in all the three districts. While decreasing trends in monsoon rainfall are noticed in Dakshina Kannada (-7.1 mm/yr.) and Udupi (-1.8 mm/yr.).  Its need to adapt to changing rainfall patterns brought about because of climate change, as water is the most vital element for farming. Adaptation strategies of farmers to agricultural crop production, soil and water conservation and flood management were analysed. The majority of the big farmers have adopted best coping mechanisms than small and marginal farmers as they have comparative advantages.