A Comparative Covid-19 Stability Analysis Using a Sir Epidemiological Model amongst the Kenyan Population for the Periods Before and After Vaccination

Abstract

In this paper, the study focused on carrying out a stability analysis on the SIR model for the COVID-19 pandemic for the period before the vaccination roll out in Kenya. Earlier, in a related study using a modified SIVR that focused on the period after the vaccination roll out, has heavily been relied on by this current study. This study therefore aimed at drawing a comparison between the pre and post-vaccination stability analyses The eventual intention is to show that whereas there existed a form of herd immunity amongst the Kenyan people attributed to the people’s way of life, transmission dynamics during the pre-vaccination period show that the disease spread was largely uncontrolled. In contrast, the earlier study on post vaccination analysis by Mocheche GM, (Mocheche, 2024) revealed that the infections drastically reduced to near zero after vaccination except for a few isolated cases that were and still continue to exhibit mild symptoms to none at all. Accordingly, this was attributed to the development of the vaccine which upon a massive campaign by the Kenyan government, led into a significant portion of the population being vaccinated. It is believed this vaccination drive enhanced herd immunity amongst the population. This development has had a significant effect in the control of more recent COVID-19 variants like JN-1 that have remained largely mild and undetected in the country. Arising from this revelation and from the cultural beliefs that discourage the populace against conventional vaccinations, results from this comparative analysis will inform policy makers that there is considerable need for deliberate civic education for the Kenyan people to embrace vaccination as a means to protecting themselves against future COVID-19 and other infectious diseases of a similar nature.