Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Land Use Land Cover Change in Nashik City (1991–2021) Using GIS and Remote Sensing

Abstract

Land Use Land Cover change has become a major focus of environmental and urban studies because it reflects the cumulative impact of natural processes and human interventions on the landscape. Accurate assessment of LULC dynamics helps in understanding environmental sustainability, resource utilisation patterns, and the long-term consequences of urban development on ecological systems. The present study analyses the spatio-temporal changes in Land Use Land Cover (LULC) patterns in Nashik during the period 1991–2021 using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The primary objective of the study is to examine the extent of urban expansion and its impact on agricultural land, vegetation cover, fallow land, scrub land, and water bodies. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery, including Landsat TM (1991) and Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS (2021) with 30 m spatial resolution, was utilised for the analysis. The satellite images were processed and analysed using ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine software. A supervised classification technique based on the Maximum Likelihood Classification algorithm was applied to classify the study area into six major LULC categories: built-up area, agricultural land, vegetation cover, fallow land, scrub land, and water bodies. To ensure the reliability of the classified outputs, accuracy assessment was carried out using Google Earth imagery, secondary spatial datasets, and ground truth verification methods. The classification results achieved satisfactory accuracy levels, with Overall Accuracy and Kappa Coefficient values indicating reliable classification performance. The findings reveal substantial transformation in the urban landscape of Nashik over the last three decades. Built-up area increased significantly from 17.67 sq. km (6.82%) in 1991 to 128.45 sq. km (49.59%) in 2021, indicating rapid urbanisation and infrastructural development. In contrast, agricultural land declined from 63.30 sq. km (24.43%) to 41.12 sq. km (15.88%), while fallow land decreased from 85.82 sq. km (33.12%) to 25.30 sq. km (9.77%). Vegetation cover reduced from 15.31 sq. km (5.91%) to 10.55 sq. km (4.07%), and scrub land declined from 73.10 sq. km (28.21%) to 51.08 sq. km (19.71%). Water bodies remained relatively stable, though increasing urban pressure may affect their ecological condition. The study clearly demonstrates that rapid and largely unplanned urban growth has considerably altered the LULC pattern of Nashik city. The research highlights the effectiveness of GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in monitoring urban expansion and environmental change and provides valuable insights for sustainable urban planning, land resource management, and environmental policy formulation.