Potential Impact of Climate Change on Six Economically Important Horticultural Crops in West Africa

Abstract

Colocasia esculenta (taro), Ipomoea batatas (sweet potato), Abelmoschus esculentus (okra), Ananas cosmosus (pineapple), Musa paradisiaca (plantain), and Anacardium occidentale (cashew) are economically important horticultural crops in West Africa, which are widely grown across the region under rain fed conditions. They are very important set of crops that provides income for the individuals involved with it and thus contributing to economy of West African nation’s. For Predicting the potential future habitat suitability of these crops under different climate scenarios holds significance for their continuous cultivation and effective management. The Maxent model was used in this study to predict habitat suitability of these crops under current and future climatic conditions based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050s and 2070s. The data used were the occurrence records from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and WorldClim’s bioclimatic environmental predictor variables. The findings of this experiment showed that the habitat suitability of some crop species will =decrease and in some it will increase. Suitable habitat was predicted to decrease within the semi-arid and arid areas of the region, especially on those countries in northern part which includes Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, as early as by 2070s. For species like okra, sweet potato and taro, there will be further decline as predicted under the higher emission scenario of RCP 8.5. The suitable habitat for cashew remained stable for future in all the models and scenarios used. This work provides the first theoretical guidance for possible future cultivation of these horticultural crops in the West Africa.