Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Model for the Analysis of Frequency of Monthly Rainfall in Osun State, Nigeria
Samuel Olorunfemi Adams, Bello Mustapha, Auta Irinew Alumbugu
Physical Science International Journal · pp. 1–9 · Published 10 Aug 2019
10.9734/psij/2019/v22i430139Abstract
The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is proposed for Osun State monthly rainfall data and the analysis was based on probability time series modeling approach. The Plot of the original data shows that the time series is stationary and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test did not suggest otherwise. The graph further displays evidence of seasonality and it was removed by seasonal differencing. The plots of the ACF and PACF show spikes at seasonal lags respectively, suggesting SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (2, 1, 1). Though the diagnostic check on the model favoured the fitted model, the Auto Regressive parameter was found to be statistically insignificant and this led to a reduced SARIMA (1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 1) model that best fit the data and was used to make forecast.
Cited by 20
Ganime Tuğba ÖNDER · 2024
Daramola Azeez Mustapha, Samuel Olorunfemi Adams, Mary Unekwu Adehi · American Journal of Applied Statistics and Economics · 2025
Salim Jibrin Danbatta, Ahmad Muhammad, Asaf Varol · Environment, Development and Sustainability · 2024
Feng Xu, Yu-Ang Du, Hong Chen · Complexity · 2021
Liang Zong · 2023 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Power Engineering (AIPE) · 2023
Teodoro Semeraro, Jessica Titocci, Lorenzo Liberatore · Environments · 2025
Hafsa Muzammal, Muhammad Zaman, Jaehak Jeong · International Journal of Climatology · 2025
Joko Wiratmo, Eddy Hermawan, Kristy Natasha Yohanes · 2023
Manikandan P, Sumathy V, Omana J · 2025 International Conference on Sustainable Communication Networks and Application (ICSCN) · 2025
Mohammad Amin Valizadeh, Iman Khorsandi Shamir, Abolfazl Ahmadi · Energy Science & Engineering · 2025
Related research
- Time Series and Empirical Orthogonal Transformation Using Meteorological Parameters across the Climatic Zones in Nigeria — shares topic coverage
- Modelling and Forecasting of Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Time Series Using SARIMA for Trend Detection- A Case Study of Umiam, Meghalaya (India) — shares topic coverage
- The Relationship between Crude Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Agricultural Commodity Price Returns Volatility in Nigeria: A Time Series Approach — shares topic coverage
- Hidden Oscillations in Fractional-order Multidimensional Chaotic Systems — shares topic coverage
- Estimation of Air Temperature and Rainfall Trends in Egypt — shares topic coverage
Article metrics
Real usage data collected on this platform.
0
Page views
0
PDF downloads
0
Outbound clicks
20
Citations
Views by country
Approximate, from request IP at view time — not citizenship or institution. Countries with fewer than 5 views are grouped as "Other".
No views recorded yet.
Traffic sources
Referring site, by host.
No traffic recorded yet.
Views and downloads exclude known bots/crawlers. Citations combines this platform's own DOI-resolved index with each external source's own reported total — see Cited by above for individually listed citing works. Last refreshed 0 seconds ago.