Contingency Crop Planning for Parbhani Region of Marathwada Based on Rainfall Analysis

Abstract

Climate change and variability pose significant challenges to global agriculture, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed farming systems. Erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged dry spells, and extreme weather events disrupt traditional cropping practices. Contingency crop planning is a crucial strategy for enhancing agricultural productivity, emerges as a proactive approach, allowing stakeholders to adjust crop choices and management practices in response to unexpected conditions. In the present study, the contingency crop planning was suggested on the basis of Markov chain probability model to determine the dry and wet week probabilities and onset and withdrawal of rainy season for Parbhani using 30 years (1991 to 2020) weekly rainfall data. The data on onset and withdrawal of rainy season indicated that the monsoon starts on the 23rd SMW (04th June – 10th June) and remains active up to the 42nd week (15th – 21st October). Based on the mean rainfall, onset and withdrawal of the effective monsoon, and the initial and conditional probability at various important growth phases of certain rabi and kharif crops. The suggested crop management plan has been created after contingency measures, such as standard meteorological week (SMW) for sowing, protective irrigation, and hoeing operations, were identified for the study area.