Results on Foresight-Research for Nanotechnology Industry Development for the Next Economy in Ukraine

Abstract

Aims: The aim of the article is to consider the generalized procedure for implementation of the foresight-project for determining the perspective directions of STD nanotechnology industry using the suggested information technology. Study Design: Initial data for foresight-research are statistical data of 2009 – 2013 years, namely, official statistical data of the state institutions and international organizations, publications of reference character, analytical monographs, annual statistical bulletins, and annual Ukrainian State Statistical Bureau reports. Place and Duration of Study: Scientific research center for industrial development problems in the National academy of Sciences of Ukraine & Department of Software Engineering, National Aerospace University named after N.Y. Zhukovsky “KhAI” in 3-d quarter of 2014. Methodology: As the main method of research it was used content analysis that allowed to make a meaningful analysis of classic papers and researches of modern economists-practitioners devoted to peculiarities of the foresight-research in high-tech industry development in different countries. As the formal basis it is chosen methods of bibliometrics and scientometrics (counting the number of publications), multicriterion problems decision making (t-ordering, Pareto optimality) and patent analysis (analysis of the curves the dynamics of inventive activity) are chosen. Results: It is considered the organization of foresight-research in different countries of the world and in Ukraine. It is defined the extent of automation for national foresight-projects. It us given the generalized procedure for implementation of the foresight-project for determining the perspective directions of scientific and technical development nanotechnologies. The result of the implementation of the foresight-research is a number of priorities of the nanotechnology industry in Ukraine. It is stated the approach to integrated automation of foresight-projects in Ukraine. In future members of foresight projects will implement the theoretical developments in the form of interactive decision support system. It is given the extent of automation of the developed methodical approach to realization of foresight-researches in Ukraine as well as their mathematical and methodical support is given. The priorities for the development of the nanotechnology industry are nanomaterials and technology as well as special equipment for the development and production of nanomaterials and nanodevices, since their vector assessments constitute the Pareto set. Conclusion: Features of the economies in different countries cause expediency in creating special foresight models for each country. Ukrainian version of foresight based on expert assessment is imperfect due to excess subjectivity. Increase of efficiency in the Ukrainian foresight lies in the plane of its computerization. The received results serve as methodological basis for creating the system of complex automation of forecasting process for STD in large-scale objects.