The Potential of Millets in Doubling Farmers’ Income in India: A Critical Narrative Review of Economic, Agroecological and Policy Evidence

Abstract

Millets have re-entered Indian agricultural policy as candidate crops for raising farm household income, improving climate resilience and diversifying diets, culminating in national promotion during the International Year of Millets and continuing support under the Sub-Mission on Nutri-Cereals. This review critically synthesises economic, agronomic, nutritional and policy literature on the contribution of millets to the broader national objective of raising farmers’ income in India. Evidence was drawn from peer-reviewed journals, agricultural economics repositories and verified institutional sources identified through a structured search of scholarly platforms. The review finds consistent agroecological support for the proposition that pearl millet, finger millet and sorghum tolerate heat and moisture stress better than rice, wheat and maize, and that substituting these staples with millets could reduce irrigation demand and stabilise production under climate variability. Economic evidence is more equivocal: cost of cultivation surveys spanning five decades show persistently low price realisation and, in several states, negative or stagnant real returns for millet growers relative to wheat and paddy cultivators, despite periodic increases in minimum support prices. Value-chain and market studies identify fragmented marketing channels, thin processing infrastructure and weak consumer demand, particularly in urban markets, as binding constraints that limit the transmission of nutritional and climate advantages into farm income gains. Farmer producer organisations and public procurement reforms show localised promise but remain unevenly implemented. The review concludes that millets hold defensible potential to contribute to income diversification and risk reduction for farmers in marginal and rainfed environments, but that this potential is conditional on sustained investment in yield improvement, processing infrastructure, demand generation and price parity policy, rather than being an inherent property of the crops themselves. Priority research and policy gaps are identified accordingly.