Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Ken Basin & Betwa Basin

Abstract

Understanding long-term rainfall trends is essential for sustainable water resource management, particularly in climate-sensitive regions such as the Ken Basin and Betwa Basin. This study examined annual rainfall trends over the period 1951–2022 for Ken Basin and Betwa Basin. The rainfall was analysed at 66 and 90 grid points in the Ken Basin and Betwa Basin using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to detect increasing or decreasing trends and the rate of change. The result showed a decreasing trend in annual rainfall for both the Ken Basin and Betwa Basin. In the Ken Basin, the total change in rainfall ranged between 235.81 mm to -413.71 mm, whereas the Betwa Basin exhibited a significant decline ranging between 193.75 mm to -488.62 mm. These decreasing trends suggest a potential reduction in groundwater recharge, surface runoff, and streamflow, which could have serious implications for water availability and agriculture. This research highlights the importance of local climate assessments to support better planning and policy-making in the context of changing weather patterns.