Trend Analysis of Rainfall in Mahabubnagar District of Telangana State, India

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the trend analysis of long-term monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall patterns in Mahabubnagar district, Telangana state. Monthly rainfall data from January 1980 to December 2023 was collected from the IMD website. The linear regression trend line and non-parametric tests, such as the Mann-Kendall test, Modified Mann-Kendall test and Innovative Trend Analysis tests were used to understand the trends in the rainfall data. The Wallis and Moore test was applied to assess the randomness of the rainfall data. The linear regression trend method revealed both increasing and decreasing trends in rainfall data for Mahabubnagar district. A significant increasing trend was observed in May, while the remaining months showed non-significant trends according to the Modified Mann-Kendall test. The pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon periods also exhibited non-significant trends in the rainfall pattern in Mahabubnagar district. The annual rainfall of Telangana showed a non-significant trend pattern based on the Modified Mann-Kendall test. The Innovative Trend Analysis approach indicated a significant increase in rainfall in February and a significant decrease in rainfall in November and December. Accurate identification of rainfall patterns in the area can help create appropriate policy measures in advance to plan for future climate uncertainties.