Epidemic Model Formulation, Analysis and Simulation of Rotavirus Diarrhea for Prevention

Abstract

Aims: Practical employment of epidemic models for rotavirus diarrhea is the aim of the study so that prevention is attained more swiftly thus reducing global disease burdens, mortality rates and financial burdens due to treatment. Study Design:  The design of this study is purely mathematical. Place and Duration of Study: Data for this study was collected from the National Health Laboratories, Botswana and the study was completed at the University of Botswana during the duration from August 2012 to October 2014. Methodology: Using pathogenesis study of Rotavirus from literature, the epidemic model was built in the continuous mode, taking reference from the basic SIR model. The model was mathematically analysed and simulated in MATLAB. Results: Simulation results were in line with the epidemic theory and showed that as long as the value of the basic reproduction number (R0) is kept to be lower than one, an epidemic can be avoided. If this value goes above one, then an epidemic is likely to break out. Conclusion: The model was successfully built, analysed and simulated showing results that matched the epidemic theory. From this stage, the model can be easily implemented on different platforms for prevention mechanisms to be exploited.