A GIS-Based Approach for Assessing Urban Development Potential in Federal Capital Territory Nigeria

Abstract

Urban development potential assessment is essential for guiding the spatial expansion of cities, optimizing land use, and ensuring sustainable urban growth. In the context of rapidly urbanizing regions, such as Nigeria, understanding development potential helps mitigate the challenges of urban sprawl, infrastructure strain, and environmental degradation, hence, this study is aimed at a GIS based approach for assessing urban development potential in federal capital territory Nigeria. The objectives of the study are to: identify and categorize the key factors influencing urban development in the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria; assess the reliability of the identified factors using consistency index and sensitivity analysis; determine the potential areas for urban development in the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria using analytical hierarchical process; and produce an urban development potential map defining the extent of urban development potential across the urban landscape of the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. The study employed the assessment of relative priorities in modelling and mapping urban development potential in Federal Capital Territory Nigeria. This assessment was based on a comprehensive set of criteria, including slope, elevation, proximity to road network, population density and proximity to developed areas. The Analytical Hierarchical Process was utilized to compare and establish the relative importance of these criteria by means of matrix comparisons. Subsequently, these criteria were assigned relative weights. Weighted Overlay technique was applied to generate the final development potential map. The study revealed that Abuja Municipal Area had the highest potential development area, covering an area 851.40 km2, with Bwari and Kuje Area Councils as having the second and third highest development potential with an area coverage of 312.40 km2 and 279.69 km2 respectively. Gwagwalada and Kwali Area Councils were ranked fourth and fifth with a developable area coverage of 180.20 km2 and 127.60 km2 respectively, while Abaji Area Council was ranked the least with developable area coverage of 40.27 km2. The study successfully integrated an approach to investigate development potential within the Federal Capital Territory. This evaluation approach, is hereby recommended to be used as tool for planning and decision making in urban development in the study area.