Socio-Economic Factors as Mediators of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Household Vulnerability in Korogocho and Kahawa Soweto Informal Settlements, Nairobi County, Kenya

Abstract

Climate variability poses significant risks to urban populations in Sub-Saharan Africa, with informal settlements disproportionately affected due to structural deprivation and socio-economic constraints. This study examined how socio-economic factors mediated the relationship between climate variability, measured through flooding, erratic rainfall, heat stress, droughts, and dust storms, and household vulnerability in two Nairobi informal settlements: Korogocho and Kahawa Soweto. Informal settlements and climate variability had been widely studied because these areas concentrated highly vulnerable populations exposed to climate risks such as flooding, heat stress, and inadequate infrastructure, making them critical hotspots for understanding urban climate impacts. Additionally, examining these contexts helped inform targeted, inclusive adaptation strategies that enhanced resilience among marginalized urban communities. A cross-sectional mixed-methods design was employed, and data were collected from 202 households via structured surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Descriptive analyses indicated widespread exposure to climate hazards, with Korogocho experiencing more frequent and severe impacts. Adaptive capacity was generally low, with only 5% of households fully implementing adaptive measures. Mediation analysis revealed that socio-economic factors, including income, education, housing quality, social capital, and gender dynamics, fully mediated the effect of climate variability on household vulnerability, underscoring their critical role in shaping resilience. The findings highlighted that while exposure to climate hazards influenced coping behaviors, structural and financial constraints limited adaptation. Descriptive and inferential analysis showed that socio-economic status significantly shaped climate risk perception. Approximately 80% of respondents reported a moderate to extreme influence of socio-economic conditions on climate risk. The distribution was statistically significant, x2(4, N = 202) = 126.8, p < .001. Cramér’s V (\(\approx\) 0.30) indicated a moderate association between socio-economic status and risk perception, confirming that vulnerability was both materially and perceptually structured by socio-economic inequalities. The study contributed to climate vulnerability theory by empirically demonstrating that household-level socio-economic conditions acted as mediators, informing the design of equity-centered interventions, socio-economic empowerment initiatives, and integrated urban planning strategies to enhance resilience in informal settlements.