Parameters and States Estimates of COVID-19 Model Using Lagrange Polynomial, Least Square Approximation and Kenya Quarantine Data

Abstract

Aims/ Objectives: To develop a compartment based mathematical model, fit daily quarantine data from Ministry of Health of Kenya, estimate individuals in latency and infected in general community and predict dynamics of quarantine for the next 90 days. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Place and Duration of Study: 13thMarch 2020 to 30th June 2020.  Methodology: The population based model was developed using status and characteristic of COVID-19 infection. Quarantine data up to 30/6/2020 was fitted using integrating and differentiating theory of odes and numerical differentiation polynomials. Parameter and state estimates was approximated using least square. Simulations were carried out using ode Matlab solver. Daily community estimates of individuals in latency and infected were obtained together with daily estimate of rate of enlisting individual to quarantine center and their proportions were summarized. Results: The results indicated that maximum infection rate was equal 0.892999 recorded on 28/6/2020, average infection rate was 0.019958 and minimum 0.00012 on 26/6/2020. Conclusion: Predictions based on parameters and state averages indicated that the number of individuals in quarantine are expected to rise exponentially up to about 26,855 individuals by 130th day and remain constant up to 190th day.