Impacts of Climate Factors Influencing Rice Production in Bangladesh

Abstract

This study aims to study the climate change pattern, assess the situation of climate change, finding the influences of climate change on the production of rice, estimating a model between climate change and rice production in Bangladesh. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Generalized Least Squares (GLS), Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) were used in this study to compare the results. This study included all 64 districts of Bangladesh with a time span from 2011 to 2018. It included panel data of the production of Aus rice, Aman rice, Boro rice as well as HYV of each rice (Aus, Aman, Boro) of 64 districts of Bangladesh for agricultural data, temperature, rainfall and humidity of 64 districts for climate data. This study estimates the stochastic production function formulated by Just and Pope (1978, 1979), which allows the effect of inputs on the mean yield to differ from that on yield variance. The results showed that increased climate variability, climate extremes; in particular, exacerbate risk on Rice production in Bangladesh. Rice yields are sensitive to rainfall extremes, with both deficient and surplus rainfall increasing variability. For 1% increase in annual total rainfall, Mean Yield will decrease by 0.139%, 0.141%, 0.132% in OLS, GLS and FGLS method respectively, if other variables remaining the same. For 1% increase in annual average percentage of humidity, Mean Yield increases by 1.352%, 1.340%, 1.362% in OLS, GLS and FGLS method respectively, if other variables remaining the same. for 1% increase in HYV area, Mean Yield increases by 0.831% in OLS, GLS and FGLS method, if other variables remaining the same. Additionally, climate inputs, non-climate input, high yielding variety seeds are found to increase average yield.