Assessment of Vulnerability of Croplands to Climate Variability in Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

Despite the wide coverage of study on vulnerability in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria over the years, it was observed that no emphasis has been placed on assessment of vulnerability of croplands to climate variability using the integrated vulnerability assessment and Geo-Informatics technique. This was achieved by determining the climate variability pattern in FCT from 1981 to 2017, determining the exposure index and the degree of sensitivity of croplands to climate variability, assessing the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate variability, evaluating the vulnerability of croplands to climate variability and developing vulnerability maps of croplands using the information produced. Yam, beans and maize were used as referenced crops in this study. Indicators were generated and analyzed on the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The study used the mixed research design. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to assign weight to the indicators. The weights were used to generate the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity indices which were used to generate the vulnerability index map. Aggregate vulnerability index (AVI) was finally determined from the weighted sum of all indicators and used to produce the vulnerability map of the six Area Councils. The study shows that Gwagwalada Area Council has the highest vulnerability (0.2323) and Abaji Area Council has the lowest (0.005). Kwali and AMAC Area Councils were highly vulnerable to climate variability (Kwali 0.1562, AMAC 0.1565). Kuje Area Council has low vulnerability (0.0273) to climate variability. Bwari Area Council showed moderate vulnerability (0.0982). The implication of the results is that the three crops (maize, beans and yam) will produce moderately at moderate vulnerability while their production will be marginal and optimal at very high and very low vulnerabilities respectively. Crop production will be optimum in Abaji, marginal in Gwagwalada and moderate in Bwari. The study also revealed that vulnerability assessment is essential in determining the varying degrees of vulnerability in different localities. It also provides information that can help researchers, policy makers, private and public institutions in planning location-based adaptation strategies and prioritizing allocating limited resources in FCT. Agriculture should be heavily subsidized in terms of providing irrigation infrastructure to farmers to reduce over-reliance on rain fed agriculture. Installation of early weather warning system manned with expertise should be made available in all the Area Councils to provide timely and accurate climatic information to farmers.