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All published articles 500

Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average Models to Analysis and Forecasting of Time Series Monthly Rainfall Patterns in Embu County, Kenya

Tartisio Njoki Filder, Moses Mahugu Muraya & Robert Mathenge Mutwiri · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Rainfall is of critical importance for many people, particularly those whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture. Predicting the trend of rainfall is a difficult task, and statistical approaches such as time series analysis provide a means for predicting the patterns of ra...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i430123

A New Smoothing Method for Time Series Data in the Presence of Autocorrelated Error

Samuel Olorunfemi Adams & Rueben Adeyemi Ipinyomi · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Spline Smoothing is used to filter out noise or disturbance in an observation, its performance depends on the choice of smoothing parameters. There are many methods of estimating smoothing parameters; most popular among them are; Generalized Maximum Likelihood (GML), Generalized...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i430121

Numerical Study on Micropolar Nanofluid Flow over an Inclined Surface by Means of Keller-Box

Khuram Rafique, Muhammad Imran Anwar & Masnita Misiran · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

In this paper, micropolar nanofluid boundary layer flow over a linear inclined stretching surface with the magnetic effect is investigated. Buongiorno’s model utilized in this study for the thermal efficiencies of the fluid flow in the presence of Brownian motion and thermophores...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i430122

A Sequential Third Order Rotatable Design of Eighty Points in Four Dimensions with an Hypothetical Case Study

Nyakundi Omwando Cornelious & Matunde Nambilo Cruyff · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

In research, experiments must be performed at pre determined levels of the controllable factors, meaning that an experimental design must be selected before the experiment takes place. Once an experimenter has chosen a polynomial model of suitable order, the problem arises on how...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i430119

Selection of Linear Time Series Model on the Basis of Out-of-Sample Prediction Criteria

Akpensuen Shiaondo Henry, Kazeem Eyitayo Lasisi, Emmanuel Alphonsus Akpan & Edeghagba Eghosa Elijah · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Background: In linear time series, the in-sample model selection and the out-of-sample model selection are the two common approaches to model selection. However, empirical evidence based on out-of-sample forecast performance is generally considered more trustworthy than evidence...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i330118

Solutions to the Equations Governing Convective Flow of Two Viscous Immiscible Dusty and Pure Fluids in a Vertical Corrugated Wall and a Parallel Flat Wall

Winfred Kaluki Musau, George Kimathi & Caroline Songa · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

This paper presents the solutions to the equations governing convective flow and heat transfer of two viscous immiscible dusty and pure fluids confined between a vertical corrugated wall and a parallel flat wall. The nonlinear partial differential equations governing the flow hav...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i330117

Modelling the Mean Waiting Times for Queues in Selected Banks in Eldoret Town-Kenya

Kenneth Kibet Karoney, Mathew K. Kosgei & Kennedy L. Nyongesa · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

The mathematical study of waiting lines is mainly concerned with queue performance measures where several applications have been drawn in past studies. Among the vast uses and applications of the theory of queuing system in banking halls, is the main focus of this study where the...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i330116

Mood State and Behavior Predictions in Social Media through Unstructured Data Analysis

Gurpreet Singh Bawa, Suresh Kumar Sharma & Kanchan K. Jain · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

For mood State and Behavior Predictions in Social Media through Unstructured Data Analysis, a new model, Behavior Dirichlet Probability Model (BDPM), which can capture the Behavior and Mood of user on Social media is proposed using Dirichlet distribution. There is a colossal amou...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i330115

Statistical Measure of Second Order Response Surface Rotatability Using an Infinite Class of Supplementary Difference Sets

Haron Mutai Ng’eno & Isaac Kipkosgei Tum · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Rotatability is a desirable feature of a response surface experimental design. In case a design is non rotatable or exhibit surface of constant prediction variances that are nearly spherical then an attempt is made to make the design rotatable. In this paper, a measure of rotatab...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i330114

Review of Bayesian Analysis in Additive Hazards Model

Enrique Ernesto, Alvarez & Maximiliano Luis, Riddick · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

In Survival Analysis, the focus of interest is a time T* until the occurrence of some event. A set of explanatory variables (denoted by a vector Z) is considered to analyze if there is a relationship between any of them and T*. Accordingly, the ``hazard function'' is defined: \[...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i230112

Comparing Zero-inflated Poisson, Zero-inflated Negative Binomial and Zero-inflated Geometric in Count Data with Excess Zero

M. I. Adarabioyo & R. A. Ipinyomi · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Count data often violate the assumptions of a normal distribution due to the fact that they are bounded by their lowest value which is zero. The Poison distribution is sometimes suggested but when the assumption of equal mean and variance is violated due to over-dispersion and pr...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i230113

Bayesian Estimation of Normal Linear Regression Model with Heteroscedasticity Error Structures

Bolanle A. Oseni, Olusanya E. Olubusoye & Adedayo A. Adepoju · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Non-constant error variance in Normal Linear Regression Model (NLRM) is an econometric problem generally referred to as heteroscedasticity. Its presence renders statistical inference invalid. Classical approach to its detection, estimation and remediation are widely discussed in...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i230111

Estimation of Malaria Symptom Data Set using Hidden Markov Model

Drinold Mbete, Kennedy Nyongesa & Joseph Rotich · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Clinical study of malaria presents a modeling challenge as patients disease status and progress is partially observed and assessed at discrete clinic visit times. Since patients initiate visits based on symptoms, intense research has focused on identication of reliable prediction...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i230110

Modeling Heteroscedasticity in the Presence of Serial Correlations in Discrete-time Stochastic Series: A GARCH-in-Mean Approach

Imoh Udo Moffat & Emmanuel Alphonsus Akpan · Asian Journal of Probability and Statistics · 2019

Background: In modeling heteroscedasticity of returns, it is often assumed that the series are uncorrelated. In practice, such series with small time periods between observations can be observed to contain significant serial correlations, hence the motivation for this research. A...

Open access Research Article 10.9734/ajpas/2019/v4i230109