Predicting the Major Organism Species in Tobacco in Cao Bang Province, Vietnam Based on the Weather Conditions

Abstract

In recent years, some organism species are appearing popularly in the tobacco in Cao Bang province, Vietnam, and caused severe damage to the tobacco yield and quality such as budworm (Helicoverpa assulta Guene), aphid (Myzus persicea Sulzer), and powdery mildew (Erysiphe cichoracearum D.C). To manage them effectively, forecasting and controlling insect pests play an important role in tobacco cultivation. The predictive model was built base on the Skybit, Fuzzy, and Degree-days model to forecast and give suitable control methods for major insect pests in tobacco. This model is run on Excel software and calculated by an IF function for the growth of the organism. Result of the model predicted accurately the tobacco budworm, aphids, and powdery mildew damaging tobacco in Cao Bang in April 2022. Based on the results of prediction, we give proper control methods for each insect pests, preventing the quick growth and development of the organism species in the field, reducing the use of pesticides, and increasing the income of the growers. This model has also applied to forecast other pests in the tobacco in Vietnam. To increase the quality of the prediction, the model will continue to be perfected and completed in the coming years based on the practice field.