Impact of Climate Change on Worlds Economy and Hydrological System

Abstract

The Mediterranean region appears to be particularly responsive to global and climate change. The global mean temperature has increased by 0.8°C compared with preindustrial levels while Europe has warmed more than the global average, especially in the Mediterranean, the north-east region, and mountain areas. Increasingly drier conditions are observed in the Mediterranean region both in the wet and in the dry season (~20%) with an increasingly irregular precipitation in both seasons (~ 40% in the dry season). The annual river flows have also decreased in the Mediterranean region, a difference projected to exacerbate due to climate and global change, which made the Mediterranean region most prone to an increase in drought hazard and water stress. Iberian Peninsula has been already affected by several major droughts, e.g. the recent one in 2005. These driving forces of global change impacts on water availability, water quality, and ecosystem services in Mediterranean river basins of the Iberian Peninsula, as well as their impacts on the human society and economy, makes it an important issue on the EU agenda. This thesis is an approach to quantify and analyze the water quantity, hydrological ecosystem services, and water supply in temperate regions under environmental changes. A hydrological model is developed for a low flow Mediterranean river (Francolí River) to assess the water allocation situation in the river basin using MIKE BASIN. Since the Mediterranean regions are hard hit by the changes in the global climatic patterns, the hydrological model focuses on the water distribution system & flow in the region.