Forecasting of Kharif Rice and Jute Yield in North Bengal through Statistical Model

Abstract

Crop yield forecasting under the present climate change scenario needs an effective model and its parameter that how crop respond to the weather variable. A number of weather based models have been developed to estimate the crop yield for the various crops at block, district and state level. Among the different model statistical model is more popular and commonly used. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the performance of statistical model for rice and jute yield forecast of four different district viz. Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, Uttar Dinajpurand and Dakhin Dinajpur. Among the four districts Cooch Behar district found superior for kharif rice yield prediction (1.46% error with RMSE 177.68 kg/ha) whereas in case of jute crop its performance was the best in the Jalpaiguri district (-0.44% error with RMSE 217.50 kg/ha).