Assessing the Influence of Climate and Drought Early-Warning Information on Smallholder Farmers’ Decision-Making in Africa: A Systematic Review

Abstract

Climate variability and recurrent droughts continue to place substantial pressure on smallholder agriculture in Africa, where farming systems are largely rain-fed and highly sensitive to climatic conditions. In response, climate and drought early-warning information has increasingly been promoted as a means of supporting farmers’ adaptive decision-making. Although this emphasis, empirical evidence on how such information shapes farm-level decisions remains scattered and uneven across contexts. This study systematically reviews empirical research to examine the influence of climate and drought early-warning information on smallholder farmers’ decision-making in Africa. Using predefined inclusion criteria, 30 peer-reviewed empirical studies conducted across 19 African countries were identified and synthesized through a narrative thematic approach. The review focuses on the types of climate information provided, the channels through which farmers access this information, and the resulting decision-making outcomes. The findings show that seasonal climate forecasts and drought early-warning alerts frequently inform key agricultural decisions, particularly adjustments to planting dates, choices of crops and varieties, and diversification strategies. Access to information continues to rely heavily on traditional channels, especially radio and agricultural extension services, while the use of digital platforms remains uneven. And finally, the evidence indicates that climate and drought early-warning information plays a more prominent role in reducing production risk and strengthening resilience than in generating consistent yield gains. Its effectiveness largely depends on farmers’ economic and institutional capacity to respond.  so that these findings point to the importance of climate information services that are locally relevant and closely linked with extension support to enhance smallholder adaptation in Africa.