Changing Weather/Climate and Prevalence of Cerebro Spinal Menigitis in Some Selected Stations in Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the effects of some weather parameters, such as maximum and minimum temperature (°C), rainfall (mm) and relative humidity (%), on the prevalence of Cerebro Spinal Meningitis (CSM) in South west and North West, Nigeria. Monthly data of reported cases of in- and out- patients of this disease between 1990 and 2007 were collected from Ondo State Specialist Hospital, Akure, and Specialist Hospital, Sokoto while data of relative humidity, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures for the same years were collected from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency, Oshodi, Lagos. CerebroSpinal meningitis (CSM), showed a strong correlation with all the weather elements considered but much stronger in the northern station. The study also reveals that CSM occurrence is linked with low minimum temperature (usually less than 20°C) and relative humidity (of less than 40%) which is more common in the northern region. In the south, the numbers of CSM cases are few throughout the year but have a peak during the dry season which is also when the effects of the north east trade winds are being felt. Minimum temperature and relative humidity combinations were used to distinguish between areas with high and low risk of epidemics.  Findings from this work can be used for designing early warning decision support systems that can enable the efficient and timely spatial targeting of preventive and control measures against the disease.