An Analysis of Trend, Growth and Instability of Major Cereals and Millets in Chhindwara District of Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

There is a significant correlation between increasing population and the demand for food grains. Madhya Pradesh has been one of the leading agricultural state in the country. The present study aims to analyse the Trend, Growth and Instability of the major cereals and millets in Chhindwara district of Madhya Pradesh, India. Research Methodology: The present study adopts a Quantitative, Descriptive and Analytical research design focused at examining the long-term changes in the area under major cereals and millets in the Chhindwara district of Madhya Pradesh. Purposive sampling design was used to analyse the trend, growth and instability under major cereals and millets for the period of 22 years from 1998 to 2019 in the Chhindwara district of Madhya Pradesh since it had the largest area under Cereals and Millets cultivation during the study period. Four major cereals and millets namely Paddy, Wheat, Maize and Jowar had been selected for the purpose of the study since they covered more than 90 per cent area in each year during the study period. Types of Data Analysis and Research Findings: The trend has been worked out using the Graphical Plot Method, growth rate using Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) and Simple Growth Rate (SGR). For analysing the instability in the Total Cropped Area, Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI) was used. The total Cereals and Millets increased from 48.22 per cent in 1998 to 78.28 per cent in 2019. Maize covered the largest area with 36.78 per cent followed by Wheat (34.29 %), Jowar (12.67%) and Paddy (6.15 %). Maize had a positive growth rate of 8.38 per cent whereas Wheat had a positive growth rate of 4.97 per cent. Paddy experienced a negative growth of -2.48 per cent while Jowar had a negative growth of -7.88 per cent. Maize was found to be highly unstable with a CDVI of 30.11 per cent. Wheat and Paddy were found to be moderately unstable with a CDVI of 20.09 per cent and 16.39 per cent respectively. Jowar was comparatively stable with a CDVI of 6.49 per cent. Theoretical and Practical Implications of Study: The results revealed that Maize and Wheat had the largest area and highest growth rate but both of them were found to be least stable. Continuous cultivation of Wheat and Maize may detriment the fertility of land. Farmers should focus on adapting crop rotation to replenish the fertility of soil. There is a need to recharge, maintain and manage the irrigation resources in the region. Storage houses should be constructed in order to reduce the wastage of Wheat and Maize. Contributions of Study: The study may aid the policymakers in promoting resilient crops like millets for food security and sustainable agriculture, reducing future losses. It also provides a robust statistical outline for researchers to analyze agricultural trends.