An Economic Analysis of Trade Performance of Soybean from India

Abstract

This study examines the growth and instability of soybean area, production, productivity, imports, and exports in India over 30 years (1993-2022) using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI).Results revealed that soybean area expanded remarkably by 205.88 per cent, from 4.25 to 13.00 million hectares and production increased by 200.95 per cent, from 4.00 to 12.04 million tonnes, with corresponding CAGR of 4.01 per cent and 3.94 per cent, respectively. However, productivity growth was negligible (-0.07 per cent), indicating yield stagnation. The increase in production of soybean was mainly due to area expansion rather than the productivity improvement. Imports of soybean rose sharply from 0.08 thousand tonnes in 2000 to 614.92 thousand tonnes in 2021 before declining to 489.58 thousand tonnes in 2022, exhibiting a very high CAGR (90.70 per cent), variability (194.19 per cent CV), and instability (85.87 per cent CDVI). Exports increased from 0.07 thousand tonnes in 1995 to 54.39 thousand tonnes in 2022, with a CAGR of 19.60 per cent but also demonstrated extremely high variability (122.31 per cent CV) and instability (85.49 per cent CDVI). The findings indicate that India’s soybean growth has been area-driven rather than yield-driven, with trade performance marked by rapid growth but also substantial fluctuations and instability.