An Intrinsic Analysis of Human Brucellosis Dynamics in Africa

Abstract

Brucellosis is one of the most common zoonotic infections globally. It affects humans, domestic animals and wildlife. In this paper, we conduct an intrinsic analysis of human brucellosis dynamics in non-periodic and periodic environments. As such we propose and study two mathematical models for human brucellosis transmission and control, in which humans acquire infection from cattle and wildlife. The first model is an autonomous dynamical system and the second is a non-autonomous dynamical system in which the seasonal transmission of brucellosis is incorporated. Disease intervention strategies incorporated in this study are cattle vaccination, culling of infectious cattle and human treatment. For both models we conduct both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction numbers. Using sensitivity analysis we established that R0 is most sensitive to the rate of brucellosis transmission from buffalos to cattle, the result suggest that in order to control human brucellosis there is a need to control cattle infection. Based on our models, we also formulate an optimal control problem with cattle vaccination and culling of infectious cattle as control functions. Using reasonable parameter values, numerical simulations of the optimal control demonstrate the possibility of reducing brucellosis incidence in humans, wildlife and cattle, within a finite time horizon, for both periodic and non-periodic environments.