Analysis of Rainfall Variability and Trends Over Nzoia River Basin, Kenya

Abstract

Nzoia river is mainly rain fed and the basin is one of the regions that is highly vulnerable to climate change in Kenya. Understanding rainfall variability and trends is important for better water resources management and economic development in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess variability and trends in rainfall at 13 sites within Nzoia River Basin over the period, 1970 to 2001, using the parametric test of Linear regression analysis and the non-parametric Mann–Kendall statistical test. Data for this study was obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). The basin experiences four rainfall seasons in a year as a result of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are two rainy seasons and two dry seasons. Annual rainfall through Linear regression analysis shows 6 stations, Kaimosi Tea Estate Ltd, Kakamega Meteorological Station, Bungoma Water Supply, Nzoia Forest Station, Malava Forest Station and Webuye Agricultural Office with declining rainfalls. The remaining 7 stations, Leissa Farm Kitale, Turbo Forest Nursery, Chorlim ADC Farm, Kaptagat Forest Station, Kimilili Agricultural Department, Bunyala Irrigation Scheme and Kadenge Yala Swamp showed increasing rainfalls. The majority of stations with increasing annual rainfall are in the upper catchment whereas those with decreasing rainfall are in the middle and lower catchment. Only 3 out of the 13 stations showed statistically significant trends in rainfall with two in the upper catchment and one in the middle; the remaining 10 stations had statistically insignificant trends. These observed changes in rainfall, although most time series are not convincing as they show predominantly no significance, along with the reported climatic warming in most parts of the basin may have future implications on human health, water resources management, various plant and animal species bio-diversity and the overall economic development of the basin.