Suitability of Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios to Project Weather Elements in the Agro-climatic Zones of Egypt

Abstract

The objective of this study was to compare between measured weather data (2010-2019) and projected data for the same period obtained from three global climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, and MIROC5), with its four RCPs scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed for the five agro climatic zones of Egypt and determine the most suitable scenario to be used in each agro-climatic zone for projection of the effect of climate change in the future on the agro-climatic zones of Egypt. Our results revealed that the four climate change scenarios developed from the three models show high level of suitability in the projection of the three studied weather elements. Climate change scenario RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 developed by HadGEM2-ES and CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 attained the highest agreement between measured and projected values of the studied weather elements. Whereas, climate change scenario RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 developed by MIROC5 attained the highest agreement between measured and projected values of the studied weather elements. Thus, we recommend the use these models in the projection of the effect of climate change in the future in the agro-climatic zones of Egypt.