The Vulnerability of Plantation Crops to Climate Change: Insights from India's Tea Production

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a significant challenge for agriculture globally, with profound implications for plantation crops, which are economically vital for many developing countries, including India. Changes in temperature, unpredictable rainfall patterns, and increased frequency of extreme weather events have raised concerns about the sustainability and productivity of plantation crops. Plantation crops are particularly sensitive to climatic variations due to their long gestation period, dependence on stable environmental conditions, and vulnerability to extreme weather events. The study examines the impact of climate change on tea production by selecting the major tea producing state Assam from northern part of India, Kerala and Tamil Nadu from southern part of India. The data for the study is collected from Indiastat and Economic Review (2021) for the period 2011 to 2020.  High humidity and rainfall increased year round tea production in Assam, while Kerala’s tea production is affected by a more seasonal climate, with a distinct dry season leading to fluctuation in tea production. Tea production in Kerala and Tamil Nadu is increasingly vulnerable to climate variability, especially changes in temperature and rainfall. While moderate deviations in rainfall can be managed, sustained high temperatures above the optimal threshold critically limit shoot growth and yield. Therefore, adaptive measures, including shade management, irrigation scheduling, and selection of heat-resilient cultivars, are essential to mitigate the adverse effects of climatic stress on tea production.