On Import Growth Path of China’s Bulk Agri-Products from Perspective of Ternary Margins

Abstract

Based on the HS6 encoded agricultural trade data from 1995 to 2018, this paper uses the ternary marginal method to analyze the import path of China’s bulk agri-products from the static and dynamic perspectives. The study finds that the import of bulk agri-products is mainly driven by the quantity margin with an average annual growth rate of 6.28 since china’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). This conclusion is robust in terms of time periods, major source countries and main varieties. Improvement of living standards of Chinese consumers, innate short of advantage in supply side, opening up policy facilitating foreign supplier and unnecessary import owing to price differential all explain quantity margin impetus. At present, the main problem in the bulk agri-products has switched from insufficient amount to structural imbalance. Therefore, it is urgent to adjust the production structure and manage the import structure of bulk agri-    products.