Change Point Detection of Temperature in Karnataka State in India During the Period 1979-2019

Abstract

This paper deals with study of exposure of Karnataka state to climate change for a period 1979-2019. The Mann Whitney Pettit’s homogeneity test (MWP) was analysed for 240 data sets for monthly data of minimum (MTmin) and maximum temperature (MT max) across ten agro climatic zones) to estimate the year of structural break or year of shift in mean monthly temperature from one level to next higher level during the forty years of study period i.e., 1979-2019. About 77 data sets were identified to show year of structural break The annual mean temperature recorded anupward shift in all the agro climatic zones of Karnataka except in hilly zone. The break year was chosen based on its frequent occurrence in data sets of minimum and maximum temperature.  It is observed to be 1998 for North Eastern Transition Zone and is 1997, 1994, 1996, 1995, 1996, 1999, 1999, 1999 and 1997 for North Eastern Dry Zone, Northern Dry Zone, Central Dry Zone, Eastern Dry Zone, Southern Dry Zone, Southern Transition Zone, Northern Transition Zone, Hilly Zone and Coastal Zone respectively. Therefore, it is a evidential picture reflecting the increase in temperatures across the zones. Researchers should develop crop varieties that are insensitive to temperature changes and should develop packages of practices which will mitigate adverse effect of fluctuations in climate parameters on crop productivity.