Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Productivity and Rural Livelihoods: A Systematic Review

Abstract

Climate change has become a real and systemic threat to global food security, especially in developing countries that are heavily dependent on the agricultural sector. This study aims to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production through a Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach on nine selected studies. The article selection process followed the PRISMA protocol, filtering 525 initial articles to nine articles that met the criteria of relevance, journal quality, and publication period. The synthesis results show that increasing global temperatures, climate variability, and unstable rainfall consistently lead to decreased agricultural production, decreased household income, and increased poverty risks. Countries such as Pakistan, Nigeria, Uganda, and Tanzania show a decrease in crop yields between 5% and 30% as well as decreased farmer incomes and widening welfare inequality. These findings underscore the importance of formulating structured, inclusive, and contextual climate adaptation policies, especially those targeting smallholder farmers as the most vulnerable group. This study also identifies gaps in previous studies, namely the limited micro and longitudinal approaches in understanding long-term adaptation dynamics.