Dynamics of Millet Farming in India: Growth Performance, Structural Shifts and Spatial Production Clusters

Abstract

Background: Millets are important climate-resilient nutri-cereals in India, yet their production dynamics vary considerably across crops and states. Aims: This study aims to examine the growth performance, variability, structural changes and spatial distribution of major millet crops (Bajra, Ragi, Jowar and Small Millets) across major producing states of India during 2000–2022. Study Design: This study adopted a quantitative and analytical design based on secondary time-series data. Place and Duration of Study: State-level data on the area, production and productivity of millets for the period 2000–2022 were obtained from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Government of India. Methodology: Growth performance was estimated using growth rates, while variability was measured through the coefficient of variation (CV). The Bai–Perron structural break test was employed to identify significant changes in production trends over time. Spatial hotspot analysis was used to examine the geographical concentration and clustering patterns of millet production across states. Results: The findings indicated a decline in the area under millet cultivation across states, while improvements in productivity helped sustain production levels. Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest production growth in Bajra (7.48%), Andhra Pradesh exhibited the highest productivity growth in Jowar (6.11%), and Arunachal Pradesh was the only state to register positive growth in area (1.42%), production (2.28%) and productivity (0.87%) of Small Millets. Variability analysis revealed substantial production instability, with the highest production variability observed in Madhya Pradesh for Bajra (56.13%), Andhra Pradesh for Ragi (38.23%), Telangana for Jowar (58.38%) and Karnataka for Small Millets (45.10%). The Bai–Perron test identified significant structural breaks across crops and states, indicating the influence of technological advancements, policy interventions and climatic variability. Spatial analysis revealed persistent production hotspots for Bajra in Rajasthan, Jowar in Maharashtra and Karnataka, Ragi in Karnataka, and Small Millets in Madhya Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh. Conclusion: The results highlight considerable regional differences in millet production dynamics, with productivity improvements playing an important role in sustaining production despite the declining cultivated area. The persistence of production hotspots and the presence of structural shifts indicate the need for region-specific strategies to enhance the sustainability and resilience of millet production systems.