Forecasting of Arrival and Price of Groundnut in Rajasthan by ARIMA Model for Livelihood of Farmers

Abstract

This paper studies the forecasting of arrival and price of groundnut at the APMC in Rajasthan. ARIMA models was used to model the time series data of arrival and price of groundnut at APMC from 2005 to 2021. Groundnut arrival was at its highest in the months of November, December, and January of the 2018–19 growing season, with 16.3%, 32.3%, and 33.6%, respectively. In the year 2019-20, the highest arrival of groundnuts was seen in October, November, and December with 28.08%, 29.79%, and 28.51% respectively. The best fitting model for the arrival of groundnut is ARIMA (1, 1, 1), and for price is ARIMA (2, 1, 1) with R-squared values of 0.931 and 0.852 respectively. The results indicate that the arrival of groundnut at APMC will increase from 1015.48 thousand metric tonnes in 2022 to 1180.68 thousand metric tonnes in 2026, while the price of groundnut will increase from Rs 5261.08/qtl in 2022 to Rs 6057.07/qtl in 2026. The results study provides valuable insights into the seasonal pattern of groundnut arrivals at APMCs and the forecasts can be used to make decisions about future supply and demand of the product to stakeholders and helps them plan for the future.